Timing the Market: Should You Buy a Home This Fall or Wait Until 2026?

Fall in Central Illinois is more than just changing leaves and pumpkin patches — it’s a time when buyers quietly wonder: Should I buy now or wait until spring or even next year? The idea of “timing the market” is tempting, but if you’re serious about homeownership, waiting could cost you more than you realize.

Let’s break down the real pros and cons of buying now versus waiting, specifically through the lens of our local market in Tazewell, Peoria, and Woodford counties.

📉 Interest Rates Are Still Unpredictable

While interest rates have come down from their 2023 highs, they’re still bouncing around. The Federal Reserve hasn’t given the all-clear signal, and economists can’t agree on when — or if — we’ll see rates dip into the 5s again.

Here’s the reality: A small change in rates has a big impact on your monthly payment. Let’s say you’re looking at a $250,000 home:

• At 7.25% interest, your monthly principal and interest is about $1,705

• If rates drop to 6.25%, that same loan costs you about $1,539/month

• But if they spike to 8%, you’re suddenly looking at $1,834/month

That’s nearly $300 per month more — over $100,000 in interest over the life of the loan.

If you find the right home now and can afford the payment, buying now could lock in a better price and allow you to refinance later. Waiting for a better rate can backfire if prices or demand spike at the same time.

🏡 Inventory in Fall Is Lower — But So Is Competition

It’s true: there are typically fewer homes on the market in the fall than in spring. But there’s also less buyer traffic, which can work in your favor.

• Fewer bidding wars

• More time to make decisions

• Sellers may be more motivated to negotiate on price, repairs, or closing costs

If you find a home that checks your boxes and is priced reasonably, don’t assume there’s a better one “coming soon.” Fall buyers often get better deals than their spring/summer counterparts — without the stress.

🔮 Waiting Until 2026 Could Be a Gamble

Spring 2026 may bring more listings, but it’s also likely to bring more buyers into the mix — especially if rates drop even a little. That creates more competition and can drive up prices.

Let’s not forget that Central Illinois real estate is still strong, especially in desirable school districts like Dunlap, Morton, and Metamora. New construction continues, but not fast enough to keep up with demand. If you wait, you may be fighting over the same homes with more people — often for a higher price.

📍 Local Markets Still Show Stability

Across Tazewell, Peoria, and Woodford counties, we’re seeing steady — not crazy — appreciation. But homes that are well-priced and move-in ready are still going fast, especially in popular price ranges under $300K.

Don’t be fooled into thinking the local market is slow just because it’s fall. If anything, the serious buyers and motivated sellers are the ones still active right now. That’s a combination that benefits you.

💰 Renting Until Spring? Do the Math

If you’re renting at $1,200 a month while you wait to “see what happens,” you’re burning $7,200 or more over the next 6 months. That money builds zero equity.

Even if prices fall slightly, the money you could have been putting toward your mortgage, tax deduction, and home equity is now gone forever. And again — if rates or demand rise, you may find yourself in a worse position than today.

✅ Bottom Line: Don’t Try to Time the Market — Time Your Life

Real estate success isn’t about timing the perfect moment. It’s about acting when the time is right for you. If you’ve got a stable job, a reasonable down payment, and you’ve been thinking about buying for a while, this fall might be your opportunity.

Let’s sit down (virtually or in-person) and go over your goals. I can help you figure out if now is the right time to act — or how to get ready if you want to buy in the next few months.

📞 Real Estate? Call Duvall!

I’ve helped over 1,000 Central Illinois buyers and sellers navigate real estate with confidence. Whether you’re a first-timer or an experienced investor, I’ll help you make smart, informed decisions.

👉 Let’s talk! Visit CallDuvall.com or call/text me at 309-200-5480.